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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.