Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”