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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "serious consequences" in August in case Vladimir Putin continued obstructing ceasefire discussions, the former president eventually introduced major penalties on Russia's biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously affected Putin's ability to support his aggression in the region.

But, through his latest comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, that was drafted by US and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or EU participation, the former president has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Aggression

This plan would effectively favor the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively undermine that very autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate experience, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple border issue, like ceding Putin a part of Ukrainian soil will please the president. But, Putin's war is not merely about controlling a charred swath of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to eliminate it so it stops acts as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the responsible governance that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Land Giveaways

While maintaining in position the presently split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the initiative would require the nation to give up the entire this eastern territory. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been failed to capture in more than a decade of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously undermined.

This region is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that constitute a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, providing Russian forces a clear way to the capital in case he subsequently choose to restart the war.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would make additional conflict easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, the initiative sets no equivalent limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's democratically elected leadership as extremists, the plan states: "All Nazi belief system and activities must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the plan has Russia commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has broken similar agreements in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied areas in the Donbas to the government – how should we believe Russia this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. Although the proposal threatens a "immediate coordinated armed reaction" should the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics vary from fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Putin from replenishing his diminished troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

Another supplementary accord apparently would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "major, planned, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. However in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary defense against additional hostilities – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to act through arms to Putin's aggression, something they have {not