‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.
The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's kitchens.
As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, availability of cooking gas are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.
"The situation is dire. LPG simply isn't available," says a representative of the an industry group.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the south. People are switching to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."
Regional Impact
In a financial hub, local news say up to a significant portion of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have depleted with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."
Retailers observe a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Government Stance
Yet, the authorities maintains there is adequate supply.
India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.
About six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the conflict.
The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by rumors. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a senior official.
Widening Concern
Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.
According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.
India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around half of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on shipping data and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, analysts say.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.
Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through diversification. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of stockpiling.
An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.
"Retailers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."
For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.